Official statistics
The Numbers: UK Migration & Asylum Statistics, Sourced
The official figures behind the issues Restore Britain campaigns on, in one place. Every number comes from a published release by the ONS, the Home Office or the Ministry of Justice, or from a pollster’s own tables, and is shown with its source and the date it was published.
Key figures
171,000
Net migration (year ending December 2025, provisional)
Estimate range 145,000–197,000. The year ending December 2024 was revised to 331,000.
33,374
Small boat arrivals (year ending June 2026)
Down 23% on the previous year (43,309), across 511 boats.
16,021
Asylum seekers housed in hotels (end of June 2026)
Down 50% on a year earlier.
10,134
Foreign nationals in prison (England & Wales) (30 June 2026)
12% of the prison population of 85,858; 6% fewer than a year earlier.
How this page works
Official statistics first
Figures come from the ONS, the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice, checked against their release spreadsheets. Every chart links to the release and gives the date it was published.
Provisional figures flagged
Recent figures that the publisher expects to revise are hatched on bar charts, dotted on line charts and marked “(p)” in labels and tables.
Party-commissioned polls labelled
The polling chart shows only polls that publish a separate Restore Britain figure. The two the party commissioned are drawn as hollow rings and named in the table.
Nationality, not ethnicity
This page reports country of birth and nationality only. No figure here is broken down by ethnicity.
Charts
Migration
Net migration to the UK
Net migration was 171,000 in 2025, down from 331,000 in 2024 and 891,000 in 2022.
People (year ending December)
- Net migration
- 2025, latest
- Provisional (hatched)
About these figures. Official statistics in development. The 2025 figure is provisional and 2024 has been revised; ONS revises recent years as more travel data comes in. The method changed in June 2021, so ONS advises caution when comparing earlier years with later ones.
View the data table (14 rows)
| Period | Net migration | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 195,000 | |
| 2013 | 244,000 | |
| 2014 | 284,000 | |
| 2015 | 303,000 | |
| 2016 | 249,000 | |
| 2017 | 208,000 | |
| 2018 | 276,000 | |
| 2019 | 184,000 | |
| 2020 | 93,000 | |
| 2021 | 467,000 | |
| 2022 | 891,000 | Uncertainty range 858,000–907,000. |
| 2023 | 848,000 | Uncertainty range 828,000–870,000. |
| 2024 | 331,000 | Revised in May 2026. Uncertainty range 309,000–348,000. |
| 2025 | 171,000(p) | Provisional. Uncertainty range 145,000–197,000. |
Source: Office for National Statistics, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025 (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used:
Provisional: hatched bars and “(p)” mark provisional figures, which the publisher may revise.
Chart updated .
Migration
Long-term immigration and emigration
Immigration fell from 1,441,000 in 2023 to 813,000 in 2025, while emigration rose from 593,000 to 642,000.
People (year ending December)
- Immigration
- Emigration
- Provisional (dotted)
About these figures. Long-term migration means moving to or from the UK for 12 months or more. The 2025 figures are provisional, 2024 has been revised, and ONS publishes uncertainty ranges only from 2022. The method changed in June 2021, so compare earlier years with caution.
View the data table (14 rows)
| Period | Immigration | Emigration | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 643,000 | 448,000 | |
| 2013 | 713,000 | 469,000 | |
| 2014 | 778,000 | 494,000 | |
| 2015 | 797,000 | 494,000 | |
| 2016 | 772,000 | 523,000 | |
| 2017 | 752,000 | 544,000 | |
| 2018 | 825,000 | 549,000 | |
| 2019 | 788,000 | 605,000 | |
| 2020 | 662,000 | 569,000 | |
| 2021 | 947,000 | 480,000 | |
| 2022 | 1,398,000 | 508,000 | |
| 2023 | 1,441,000 | 593,000 | |
| 2024 | 1,012,000 | 680,000 | Immigration: Revised in May 2026. Emigration: Revised in May 2026. |
| 2025 | 813,000(p) | 642,000(p) | Immigration: Provisional. Uncertainty range 789,000–823,000. Emigration: Provisional. Uncertainty range 616,000–655,000. |
Source: Office for National Statistics, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025 (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used:
Provisional: dotted line segments, hollow end markers and “(p)” mark provisional figures, which the publisher may revise.
Chart updated .
Small boats
Small boat arrivals by year
41,472 people were detected arriving by small boat in 2025, the second-highest year after 2022, and 19,869 had arrived in 2026 by 4 October.
People detected arriving
- Small boat arrivals
- 2026 (to 4 Oct), latest
- Provisional (hatched)
About these figures. Counts people detected arriving or intercepted in the Channel and brought to the UK; people who arrive undetected are not included. The 2026 figure is a partial year from provisional operational data, which can differ from the quarterly official statistics.
View the data table (9 rows)
| Period | Small boat arrivals | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 299 | 43 boats. |
| 2019 | 1,843 | 164 boats. |
| 2020 | 8,466 | 641 boats. |
| 2021 | 28,526 | 1,034 boats. |
| 2022 | 45,774 | 1,110 boats. July to September 2022 figures come from casework systems rather than manual records. |
| 2023 | 29,437 | 602 boats. |
| 2024 | 36,816 | 695 boats. |
| 2025 | 41,472 | 672 boats. January 2025 onwards produced with enhanced data matching, so may differ slightly from earlier publications. |
| 2026 (to 4 Oct) | 19,869(p) | Year to date, 1 January–4 October 2026, across 290 boats; provisional weekly and daily data. By the same date in 2025, 34,401 had arrived. |
Source: Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: how many people come to the UK via illegal entry routes (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used:
- Home Office, Illegal entry routes to the UK summary tables, year ending June 2026 (IER_01, IER_02a) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats: time series (daily data to 1 October 2026) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Small boat arrivals: last 7 days (28 September to 4 October 2026) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats (opens in a new tab) ()
Provisional: hatched bars and “(p)” mark provisional figures, which the publisher may revise.
Chart updated .
Asylum
Asylum claims and the initial decision backlog
85,891 people claimed asylum in the year to June 2026, 21% fewer than a year earlier, and 40,168 were awaiting an initial decision, down from a peak of 175,457 in June 2023.
People
- People claiming asylum (year to June)
- People awaiting an initial decision (end of June)
About these figures. Claims count people, including dependants, by date of claim. The backlog counts only people awaiting an initial decision; appeals are counted separately by the tribunal, whose open asylum caseload rose to 87,450 at the end of March 2026. Figures come from live casework systems and can be revised.
View the data table (11 rows)
| Period | People claiming asylum (year to June) | People awaiting an initial decision (end of June) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2016 | 44,844 | 25,736 | |
| Jun 2017 | 35,622 | 27,709 | |
| Jun 2018 | 35,305 | 29,984 | |
| Jun 2019 | 42,153 | 40,960 | |
| Jun 2020 | 41,166 | 54,073 | |
| Jun 2021 | 38,400 | 70,905 | |
| Jun 2022 | 75,668 | 122,213 | |
| Jun 2023 | 97,677 | 175,457 | People awaiting an initial decision (end of June): Highest since the series began in 2010. |
| Jun 2024 | 94,689 | 118,882 | |
| Jun 2025 | 108,585 | 90,812 | |
| Jun 2026 | 85,891 | 40,168 | People awaiting an initial decision (end of June): Relating to 32,401 cases. |
Source: Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: how many people claim asylum in the UK (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used: 5 further sources
- Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: how many people are in the UK asylum system (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Asylum summary tables, year ending June 2026 (Asy_00a, Asy_03a, Asy_09a) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Asylum claims and initial decisions detailed datasets, year ending June 2026 (Asy_D01) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Asylum claims awaiting a decision detailed dataset, year ending June 2026 (Asy_D03) (opens in a new tab) ()
- The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, Citizenship applications hit new record while asylum applications fall (opens in a new tab) ()
Chart updated .
Hotels
Asylum seekers housed in hotels
16,021 asylum seekers were housed in hotels at the end of June 2026, half the number a year earlier and 71% below the peak of 56,018 at the end of September 2023.
People in hotel accommodation
- People in asylum hotels
- Jun 2026, latest
About these figures. A snapshot of people in contingency hotel accommodation on the last day of each quarter, not the number who passed through hotels during the year. The Home Office publishes this breakdown only from the end of December 2022.
View the data table (15 rows)
| Period | People in asylum hotels | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2022 | 45,753 | Of 110,171 on asylum support. |
| Mar 2023 | 47,490 | Of 112,294 on asylum support. |
| Jun 2023 | 50,520 | Of 117,450 on asylum support. |
| Sep 2023 | 56,018 | Peak. Of 123,758 on asylum support. |
| Dec 2023 | 45,744 | Of 111,132 on asylum support. |
| Mar 2024 | 34,486 | Of 104,299 on asylum support. |
| Jun 2024 | 29,561 | Of 100,995 on asylum support. |
| Sep 2024 | 35,628 | Of 109,024 on asylum support. |
| Dec 2024 | 38,054 | Of 112,187 on asylum support. |
| Mar 2025 | 32,326 | Of 106,771 on asylum support. |
| Jun 2025 | 32,041 | Of 106,075 on asylum support. |
| Sep 2025 | 36,273 | Of 111,651 on asylum support. |
| Dec 2025 | 30,657 | Of 107,003 on asylum support. |
| Mar 2026 | 20,885 | Of 97,519 on asylum support. |
| Jun 2026 | 16,021 | Of 93,293 on asylum support (17%). |
Source: Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: how many people are in the UK asylum system (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used:
Chart updated .
Returns
Enforced and voluntary returns
There were 9,669 enforced and 30,936 voluntary returns in the year to June 2026; enforced returns have risen every year since 2021 but remain below the 12,327 of the year to June 2016.
Returns (year to June)
- Enforced returns
- Voluntary returns
- Provisional (hatched)
About these figures. Voluntary returns include people found through data matching to have left without telling the Home Office, so recent years are revised upward over time and comparisons should be made with caution. The latest seven quarters are provisional. People refused entry at a port and then departing are not included.
View the data table (11 rows)
| Period | Enforced returns | Voluntary returns |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 12,327 | 30,562 |
| 2017 | 12,007 | 24,790 |
| 2018 | 10,708 | 18,044 |
| 2019 | 7,894 | 14,241 |
| 2020 | 5,236 | 8,436 |
| 2021 | 2,939 | 5,032 |
| 2022 | 3,273 | 9,263 |
| 2023 | 4,878 | 15,512 |
| 2024 | 7,251 | 23,901 |
| 2025 | 9,077(p) | 28,407(p) |
| 2026 | 9,669(p) | 30,936(p) |
Source: Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: how many people are returned from the UK (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used:
Provisional: hatched bars and “(p)” mark provisional figures, which the publisher may revise.
Chart updated .
Population
Residents born outside the UK, England and Wales
The share of residents of England and Wales born outside the UK rose from 8.9% in 2001 to 13.4% in 2011 and 16.8% in 2021.
Share of usual residents
- Born outside the UK
- 2021, latest
About these figures. Country of birth, not nationality or ethnicity. This census series covers England and Wales only. ONS separately estimates 13.115 million non-UK-born residents across the UK at 30 June 2024, using a provisional method that rolls forward census populations with migration flows and deaths; that UK count is not directly comparable with these England and Wales percentages. Census 2021 was held during the coronavirus pandemic; ONS notes that UK travel restrictions from March 2020 were expected to reduce arrivals in the year before the census.
View the data table (3 rows)
| Period | Born outside the UK | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 8.9% | 4.6 million people. |
| 2011 | 13.4% | 7.5 million people. |
| 2021 | 16.8% | 10.0 million people. |
Source: Office for National Statistics, International migration, England and Wales: Census 2021 (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used:
- Office for National Statistics, International migrants in England and Wales: 2011 (opens in a new tab) ()
- Office for National Statistics, Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2025 (opens in a new tab) ()
Chart updated .
Foreign national offenders
Foreign nationals in prison and foreign offenders returned
10,134 foreign nationals were in prison in England and Wales at 30 June 2026, 12% of all prisoners, and 5,962 foreign national offenders were returned from the UK in the year to June 2026, 12% more than a year earlier.
People
- Foreign nationals in prison (30 June)
- Foreign national offenders returned (year to June)
- Provisional (dotted)
About these figures. By nationality only. The prison line is a snapshot on 30 June in England and Wales, including remand and non-criminal prisoners; the returns line counts a whole year across the UK, so the two measure different things. Nationality was not recorded for 230 prisoners at 30 June 2026. The latest returns figures are provisional.
View the data table (11 rows)
| Period | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June) | Foreign national offenders returned (year to June) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,891 | 6,344 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 11.6% of 85,134 prisoners. |
| 2017 | 9,756 | 6,473 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 11.4% of 85,863 prisoners. |
| 2018 | 9,066 | 5,965 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 11.0% of 82,773 prisoners. |
| 2019 | 9,089 | 5,181 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 11.0% of 82,710 prisoners. |
| 2020 | 9,308 | 3,847 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 11.7% of 79,514 prisoners. |
| 2021 | 9,815 | 2,860 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 12.5% of 78,324 prisoners. |
| 2022 | 9,682 | 2,909 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 12.0% of 80,659 prisoners. |
| 2023 | 10,321 | 3,466 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 12.0% of 85,851 prisoners. |
| 2024 | 10,435 | 4,525 | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 11.9% of 87,726 prisoners. |
| 2025 | 10,772 | 5,333(p) | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 12.3% of 87,334 prisoners. |
| 2026 | 10,134 | 5,962(p) | Foreign nationals in prison (30 June): 11.8% of 85,858 prisoners: 3,283 on remand, 6,431 sentenced and 420 non-criminal. |
Source: Ministry of Justice, Offender Management Statistics quarterly: January to March 2026 (prison population at 30 June 2026) (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used:
- Ministry of Justice, Annual prison population: 2026 (Table 1.A.24, prison population by nationality group) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Immigration system statistics, year ending June 2026: how many people are returned from the UK (opens in a new tab) ()
- Home Office, Returns detailed datasets, year ending June 2026 (Ret_D01, Ret_D03) (opens in a new tab) ()
Provisional: dotted line segments, hollow end markers and “(p)” mark provisional figures, which the publisher may revise.
Chart updated .
Polling
Restore Britain in the polls
Between April and September 2026, polls that reported Restore Britain separately put it between 1% and 9%, with Survation lowest (1–3%) and the highest reading from a poll the party commissioned.
Westminster vote intention
- Poll not commissioned by the party
- Commissioned by Restore Britain
- Range of the other polls that month
About these figures. Only polls that publish a separate Restore Britain figure are shown; several pollsters, including Opinium (apart from one June poll), Deltapoll, JL Partners and Find Out Now’s regular poll, do not. Pollsters word and prompt the question differently, which affects the level. Survation and Techne sample the whole UK, the rest Great Britain. Two polls were commissioned by Restore Britain.
View the data table (57 rows)
| Pollster and fieldwork | Restore Britain | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| More in Common, 25–29 Sep 2026 | 6% | Sample 2,041. Not commissioned by the party. Headline table gives 5.805%, rounded to 6%. |
| Survation, 29 Sep 2026 | 2.5% | Sample 1,548. For Mandate Research; not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample. Table gives 2.46%, rounded to one decimal. Published 30 September. |
| YouGov, 27–28 Sep 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,310. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. Published 29 September. |
| BMG Research, 23–24 Sep 2026 | 7% | Sample 1,515. For The i Paper; not commissioned by the party. Published by The i Paper; BMG’s own tables were not yet online when checked. |
| Survation, 22–23 Sep 2026 | 2% | Sample 1,224. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| More in Common, 18–21 Sep 2026 | 6% | Sample 2,113. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 20–21 Sep 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,286. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Trajectory Partnership, 7–16 Sep 2026 | 3% | Sample 1,460. Not commissioned by the party. |
| Ipsos, 10–15 Sep 2026 | 3% | Sample 1,031. Not commissioned by the party. |
| More in Common, 11–15 Sep 2026 | 6% | Sample 2,038. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 13–14 Sep 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,149. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Find Out Now / Electoral Calculus MRP, 4–11 Sep 2026Party-commissioned | 7% | Sample over 5,500. Commissioned by Restore Britain. |
| Survation, 9–10 Sep 2026 | 2% | Sample 2,043. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 6–7 Sep 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,371. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| More in Common, 4–6 Sep 2026 | 6% | Sample 2,130. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 31 Aug–1 Sep 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,244. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| More in Common, 28–31 Aug 2026 | 4% | Sample 3,250. Not commissioned by the party. |
| Survation, 26–28 Aug 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,149. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| BMG Research, 25–26 Aug 2026 | 5% | Sample 1,579. For The i Paper; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 23–24 Aug 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,380. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| More in Common, 21–23 Aug 2026 | 4% | Sample 3,140. Not commissioned by the party. |
| Survation, 18 Aug 2026 | 2% | Sample 2,013. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 16–17 Aug 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,441. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Survation, 10–13 Aug 2026 | 2% | Sample 2,004. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 9–10 Aug 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,417. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Ipsos, 30 Jul–4 Aug 2026 | 4% | Sample 1,033. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 2–3 Aug 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,300. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Survation, 25–27 Jul 2026 | 2% | Sample 1,012. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 26–27 Jul 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,328. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Survation, 22–24 Jul 2026 | 1% | Sample 1,021. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 22–23 Jul 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,262. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 19–20 Jul 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,325. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Survation, 10–14 Jul 2026 | 2% | Sample 2,057. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 12–13 Jul 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,334. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 5–6 Jul 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,285. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Find Out Now / Electoral Calculus MRP, 23–30 Jun 2026 | 7% | Sample 5,545. For PLMR; not commissioned by the party. |
| Ipsos, 25–30 Jun 2026 | 3% | Sample 1,045. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 28–29 Jun 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,437. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Opinium, 24–26 Jun 2026 | 6% | Sample 2,050. For The Observer; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 21–22 Jun 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,345. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Survation, 11–15 Jun 2026 | 2% | Sample 1,003. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 14–15 Jun 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,308. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 7–8 Jun 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,267. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 31 May–1 Jun 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,342. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 25–26 May 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,354. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Ipsos, 13–20 May 2026 | 2% | Sample 1,137. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 17–18 May 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,356. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Techne, 13–15 May 2026 | 3% | Sample 1,639. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 10–11 May 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,338. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 4–5 May 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,377. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 26–27 Apr 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,354. Not commissioned by the party. |
| Techne, 22–24 Apr 2026 | 3% | Sample 1,645. Not commissioned by the party. UK-wide sample (other polls cover Great Britain). |
| YouGov, 19–20 Apr 2026 | 3% | Sample 2,472. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| Find Out Now, 15–16 Apr 2026Party-commissioned | 9% | Sample 2,284. Commissioned by Restore Britain. |
| Ipsos, 9–15 Apr 2026 | 3% | Sample 1,044. Not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 12–13 Apr 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,367. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
| YouGov, 6–7 Apr 2026 | 4% | Sample 2,320. For The Times/Sky News; not commissioned by the party. |
Source: Wikipedia, Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election (2026 table) (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Also used: 16 further sources
- YouGov, Voting intention, fieldwork 20–21 September 2026 (for The Times/Sky News) (opens in a new tab) ()
- YouGov, Voting intention, fieldwork 27–28 September 2026 (for The Times/Sky News) (opens in a new tab) ()
- More in Common, Voting intention and trackers, fieldwork 18–21 September 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- More in Common, Voting intention and trackers, fieldwork 25–29 September 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- Survation, UK politics poll, fieldwork 22–23 September 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- Survation, Mandate Research poll: UK voting intention and Labour conference speech, fieldwork 29 September 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- Ipsos, Ipsos Political Monitor, September 2026 (fieldwork 10–15 September) (opens in a new tab) ()
- The i Paper, Reform’s support eaten away by Restore as Labour pulls ahead in latest poll (BMG, fieldwork 23–24 September 2026) (opens in a new tab) ()
- BMG Research, BMG polling results for The i, fieldwork 25–26 August 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- Trajectory Partnership, Voting intention, September 2026 (fieldwork 7–16 September) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now, MRP poll, fieldwork 4–11 September 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now, MRP poll July 2026, fieldwork 23–30 June 2026 (for PLMR) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Opinium, Opinium/Observer voting intention, fieldwork 24–26 June 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- Techne UK, Tracker poll, fieldwork 13–15 May 2026 (with 22–24 April comparison) (opens in a new tab) ()
- Find Out Now, Voting intention for Restore Britain (client), fieldwork 15–16 April 2026 (opens in a new tab) ()
- PollCheck, Restore Britain polling average (opens in a new tab) ()
Chart updated .
Methodology & caveats
Each chart uses the latest release from the body that produces the figures. Migration estimates are the ONS’s provisional long-term international migration series, which the ONS labels “official statistics in development” and revises as more travel data arrives. Asylum, hotel and returns figures come from the Home Office’s quarterly immigration system statistics for the year ending June 2026. Small boat totals for complete years are the Home Office’s quarterly official statistics; the figure for 2026 so far comes from its provisional weekly data.
Prison figures are the Ministry of Justice’s snapshot of the prison population in England and Wales on 30 June 2026, by nationality. Country-of-birth figures come from the census for England and Wales. Polls are those by British Polling Council members that publish a separate Restore Britain figure, checked against each pollster’s own tables where they were available.
Independent analysis. Commenting on the August 2026 Home Office release, the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford attributed much of the fall in the initial asylum grant rate, to 38% in the year to June 2026, to a changing mix of nationalities.
Source: The Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, Citizenship applications hit new record while asylum applications fall (opens in a new tab) (published ).
Caveats, chart by chart
- Net migration to the UK
- Official statistics in development. The 2025 figure is provisional and 2024 has been revised; ONS revises recent years as more travel data comes in. The method changed in June 2021, so ONS advises caution when comparing earlier years with later ones.
- Long-term immigration and emigration
- Long-term migration means moving to or from the UK for 12 months or more. The 2025 figures are provisional, 2024 has been revised, and ONS publishes uncertainty ranges only from 2022. The method changed in June 2021, so compare earlier years with caution.
- Small boat arrivals by year
- Counts people detected arriving or intercepted in the Channel and brought to the UK; people who arrive undetected are not included. The 2026 figure is a partial year from provisional operational data, which can differ from the quarterly official statistics.
- Asylum claims and the initial decision backlog
- Claims count people, including dependants, by date of claim. The backlog counts only people awaiting an initial decision; appeals are counted separately by the tribunal, whose open asylum caseload rose to 87,450 at the end of March 2026. Figures come from live casework systems and can be revised.
- Asylum seekers housed in hotels
- A snapshot of people in contingency hotel accommodation on the last day of each quarter, not the number who passed through hotels during the year. The Home Office publishes this breakdown only from the end of December 2022.
- Enforced and voluntary returns
- Voluntary returns include people found through data matching to have left without telling the Home Office, so recent years are revised upward over time and comparisons should be made with caution. The latest seven quarters are provisional. People refused entry at a port and then departing are not included.
- Residents born outside the UK, England and Wales
- Country of birth, not nationality or ethnicity. This census series covers England and Wales only. ONS separately estimates 13.115 million non-UK-born residents across the UK at 30 June 2024, using a provisional method that rolls forward census populations with migration flows and deaths; that UK count is not directly comparable with these England and Wales percentages. Census 2021 was held during the coronavirus pandemic; ONS notes that UK travel restrictions from March 2020 were expected to reduce arrivals in the year before the census.
- Foreign nationals in prison and foreign offenders returned
- By nationality only. The prison line is a snapshot on 30 June in England and Wales, including remand and non-criminal prisoners; the returns line counts a whole year across the UK, so the two measure different things. Nationality was not recorded for 230 prisoners at 30 June 2026. The latest returns figures are provisional.
- Restore Britain in the polls
- Only polls that publish a separate Restore Britain figure are shown; several pollsters, including Opinium (apart from one June poll), Deltapoll, JL Partners and Find Out Now’s regular poll, do not. Pollsters word and prompt the question differently, which affects the level. Survation and Techne sample the whole UK, the rest Great Britain. Two polls were commissioned by Restore Britain.
Next data releases: ONS and Home Office,
The ONS’s next long-term international migration estimates and the Home Office’s immigration system statistics for the year ending September 2026 are both due on that date. The charts here are updated after each release, and every figure keeps its source and publication date.